Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 48.23 CNY [2][14]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the scroll compressor market, with significant potential for domestic substitution. The report compares the current stage of scroll compressor localization to the third phase of rotor compressor localization, indicating a broad space for domestic brands to grow [2][12]. - The report anticipates a strong growth trajectory for the company, projecting EPS growth of +23%/+29%/+20% for 2024-2026, with expected EPS of 1.83/2.36/2.84 CNY [2][12]. - The report highlights that the scroll compressor market is dominated by foreign brands, but the company has the capability to compete effectively due to its experienced team and competitive pricing [2][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 695 million CNY in 2024, growing at a rate of 25% from 2023, with net profit projected at 107 million CNY, reflecting a 23% increase [13][19]. - The report outlines specific revenue growth rates for different business segments, including commercial air conditioning (+34% for 2024-2026) and heat pump applications (+7% for 2024-2026) [10][19][41]. 2. Valuation Analysis - The report employs both relative valuation (PE method) and absolute valuation (DCF method) to estimate the company's value. The relative valuation suggests a target price of 45.75 CNY based on a 25x PE for 2024 [21][22]. - The DCF analysis indicates a per-share value of 50.72 CNY, considering a WACC of 7.62% [22][46]. 3. Investment Story - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for scroll compressors in various applications, including commercial air conditioning, heat pumps, and electric vehicle air conditioning [12][19]. - The report emphasizes the high technical barriers in the scroll compressor market, which limits new entrants and provides a competitive advantage to established players like the company [25][27]. 4. Market Trends - The global scroll compressor market is steadily growing, with the company expected to capture a larger market share as domestic brands increase their presence [31][35]. - The report notes that the scroll compressor market in China has significant growth potential, with the company poised to benefit from this trend [31][35].
英华特首次覆盖报告：涡旋压缩机龙头，国产替代空间广阔