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Consistently exceeding expectations
BGNEBeiGene(BGNE) 招银国际·2024-05-10 03:32

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for BeiGene, reflecting strong growth potential and robust pipeline [2][4][16] Core Insights - BeiGene's product sales in 1Q24 reached US747million,showingan18747 million, showing an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase and an 82% year-over-year increase, representing 25.7% of the previous FY24 estimate [2] - Zanubrutinib (zanu) sales were particularly strong, increasing 18% QoQ and 131% YoY to US489 million, driven by market share gains in CLL in the US and expanded reimbursement in the EU [2] - The company is on track to achieve profitability, with expectations to break even by FY26E, supported by improving operating margins and narrowing net losses [2][3] Summary by Sections Product Sales Performance - Total product sales for BeiGene in 1Q24 were US747million,up18747 million, up 18% QoQ and 82% YoY [2] - Zanubrutinib captured approximately 21% of the global BTK inhibitor market in 1Q24, up from 18% in 4Q23 [2] Patent Dispute - A patent dispute with Pharmacyclics is nearing resolution, with the USPTO expected to issue a final decision on the validity of the contested patent within 12 months [2] Financial Performance - Gross profit margin improved to 83.3% in 1Q24 from 82.7% in FY23, driven by high-margin product sales [2] - Net loss narrowed to US251 million in 1Q24 from US368millionin4Q23,betterthanexpectations[2][3]FutureGrowthPotentialUpcomingclinicaltrialsforsonrotoclaxandBGB16673areexpectedtoyieldsignificantdata,withpotentialblockbusterstatusanticipated[2]ForecastforzanubrutinibsalesinFY24isUS368 million in 4Q23, better than expectations [2][3] Future Growth Potential - Upcoming clinical trials for sonrotoclax and BGB-16673 are expected to yield significant data, with potential blockbuster status anticipated [2] - Forecast for zanubrutinib sales in FY24 is US2.2 billion, representing a 69% YoY increase [2] Target Price Adjustment - The DCF-based target price for BeiGene has been raised from US268.20toUS268.20 to US269.73, indicating a potential upside of 59.9% from the current price of US$168.64 [4][12]