投研日报：宏观

Market Overview - The sentiment in the commodity market has cooled, with most domestic commodities experiencing a decline[6] - The black commodity sector continues to retreat from high levels, influenced by weak demand in the real estate sector[6] - Agricultural products have also seen a downturn, failing to maintain their strong performance[6] Economic Indicators - China's total import and export value for the first four months reached 13.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%[10] - In April alone, imports grew by 12.2% to 1.56 trillion yuan, while exports increased by 5.1% to 2.08 trillion yuan[10] - The April PMI showed a decline, indicating insufficient effective demand that necessitates further policy support[6] Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East adds uncertainty to oil and shipping trends, impacting market stability[6] - The situation in Gaza remains volatile, with potential implications for precious metal prices due to geopolitical tensions[15] Monetary Policy Outlook - The U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, the highest since August, suggesting a cooling labor market and increasing expectations for interest rate cuts[12][35] - The Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate at 5.25%, with some members advocating for potential rate cuts in the future[31][35] Precious Metals - On May 9, gold futures closed at 548.1 yuan per gram, down 0.22%, while silver futures rose by 0.73% to 7,159 yuan per kilogram[16] - Long-term outlook for precious metals remains bullish, supported by potential interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks[18]