2024年4月进出口数据点评：4月进出口同比增速超预期，外需对我国出口支撑力增强

Export Performance - In April 2024, China's total export value reached $292.45 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 4.57% and a year-on-year growth of 1.5%, exceeding market expectations of 0.11%[1] - The trade surplus for April was recorded at $72.35 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 23.57%[1] - The export growth was primarily driven by the increase in volume, particularly in high-tech and high-value-added industries such as machinery and automobiles, which saw a significant rise in export contributions[1] Import Performance - In April 2024, imports totaled $220.10 billion, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.47% but a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, surpassing market expectations of 3.54%[1] - The substantial year-on-year growth in imports was influenced by a low base from the previous year, with 17 out of 25 categories showing positive year-on-year growth in import volume[1] - Key categories contributing to import growth included crude oil, refined oil, and unrefined copper, with some categories experiencing over 20% growth in import volume[1] Market Outlook - The external demand for exports is expected to remain strong in the second quarter of 2024, supported by a recovering global economy and improved manufacturing activity, as indicated by the global manufacturing PMI reaching 50.3 in April[2] - The U.S. economy's resilience and the IMF's upward revision of U.S. growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 suggest a favorable environment for Chinese exports[2] - Despite some inflation concerns in the U.S., the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve may enhance global liquidity, further supporting China's export performance[2]