24Q1业绩高增，百炼盈利有望逐步修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price reflecting a reasonable valuation despite a downward adjustment in profit forecasts [24][25]. Core Insights - The company has achieved significant growth in Q1 2024, with revenue reaching 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.33% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.50%. Net profit for the same period surged to 62 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 2344.25% [6][24]. - The company is a leader in the integrated die-casting product sector, having commenced mass production and delivery of its products in Q4 2022. The production yield for integrated products exceeds 95% [1][23]. - The automotive aluminum alloy casting segment generated 4.91 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 96.28% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 15.22% [6][24]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue for 2023 was reported at 5.10 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.45% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.04 million yuan, down 78.77% year-on-year [6][24]. - The company forecasts a revenue increase to 7.65 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of 50.00% [3][24]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is adjusted to 304 million yuan, with further estimates of 472 million yuan and 642 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [24][25]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company operates 75 large die-casting machines ranging from 1100T to 4500T, with additional machines of 6000T, 7000T, and 9000T in operation. New factories in Anhui, Chongqing, and Foshan are under rapid construction [1][6]. - The integrated die-casting models are expected to ramp up production, leading to improved capacity utilization and performance [1][7].