挖机行业有望筑底向上，光伏业务带来新增长点

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The excavator industry is expected to bottom out and recover, with the photovoltaic business providing new growth opportunities [8] - The company is a large enterprise integrating hydraulic components and precision castings, benefiting from the upward cycle of the excavator market and the acquisition of Shangchi, which opens a second growth curve [9] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 1.081 billion, 1.229 billion, and 1.391 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.04%, 13.72%, and 13.15% respectively [9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 150 million, 179 million, and 210 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 47.49%, 19.03%, and 17.62% respectively [9] - The company's price-to-earnings ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 22.49, 18.89, and 16.06 times [9] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 806 million yuan, a decrease of 10.05% year-on-year, and a net profit of 102 million yuan, down 20.01% year-on-year [18] - The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue increase of 10.46% year-on-year to 225 million yuan, with a net profit increase of 26.19% to 33 million yuan [18] - The gross profit margin for 2023 was slightly down by 0.30 percentage points to 24.18%, while the gross profit margin for Q1 2024 increased to 27.38% [30] - The company’s expense ratio increased by 1.12 percentage points to 10.18% in 2023, with expectations of a decrease in the future due to revenue growth [30] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The acquisition of Jiangyin Shangchi is expected to bring a second growth curve through the development of new products such as the rotary reducer, which is widely applicable in various sectors including photovoltaic tracking systems [30] - The rotary reducer can enhance the efficiency of photovoltaic systems, providing a cost-effective solution that improves project returns [30]