宏观及大类资产配置月报【2024年5月】：港股大放异彩，权益资产或迎配置窗口

Macro Economic Overview - The domestic economy shows a recovery trend, with Q1 GDP growth at 5.3%, exceeding market expectations and laying a solid foundation for the annual target [5][6][25] - The net export positively contributed 0.77 percentage points to GDP growth in Q1, marking a significant turnaround after five consecutive quarters of negative impact [6][18] - April economic data indicates continued recovery, but structural differentiation exists, with traditional industries showing lower activity levels [22][28] Equity Market Insights - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend amidst volatility in May, presenting a favorable allocation window [49][72] - The performance of large-cap stocks remains stable, while small-cap stocks have shown a reversal in trend [76][77] - The financial and real estate sectors have performed well, with significant gains in April [76][77] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market faces increased risks in May, with potential short-term fluctuations in the long-term bull market [73][74] - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 1.3 basis points to 2.30%, interrupting a five-month downward trend [64] - The bond market's long-term bullish logic remains intact despite short-term adjustments, with a focus on short-duration bonds due to lower liquidity pressure [73][74] Commodity Market Outlook - The commodity market continues to strengthen, with a bullish outlook on gold due to geopolitical factors and central bank purchases [65][69] - Industrial metals are expected to perform well in the medium to long term, supported by global manufacturing recovery [69][91] - Oil prices are anticipated to remain stable, influenced by OPEC+ production cuts and a balanced supply-demand dynamic [69] Currency Market Trends - The RMB exchange rate showed fluctuations, with the CFETS RMB index rising from 99.87 to 100.43 in April [70] - The USD/RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain high volatility, influenced by external pressures and the strong dollar trend [72][70]