Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected total return above the relevant industry over the next 12 months [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the significant drop in polysilicon prices has led to attractive valuations at the cycle bottom, with expectations that prices have likely bottomed out and may rebound in the third quarter [2][3]. - The company's first-quarter performance showed a revenue of 5.6 billion RMB and a net profit of 359 million RMB, with a gross margin of 23.4% [2]. - The report suggests that the company remains competitive in the long term as a leading polysilicon producer, despite current performance pressures [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024E: 25.48 billion RMB, 2025E: 27.88 billion RMB, 2026E: 30.87 billion RMB, reflecting a decline in 2023 and 2024, followed by growth in subsequent years [4][8]. - Net profit estimates are significantly reduced to 347 million RMB for 2024E, with a recovery expected in 2025E and 2026E [4][8]. - The report indicates a substantial decrease in production costs, with the cost per ton of polysilicon dropping to 46,000 RMB, which is competitive with peers [2][3]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at HKD 9.20, with a target price adjusted to HKD 12.04, indicating a potential upside of 30.9% [1][3]. - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 15.90%, with a 52-week high of HKD 18.62 and a low of HKD 8.17 [6].
多晶硅价格下跌，周期底部估值具吸引力