中国人身险行业展望，2024年

Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for the Chinese life insurance industry is maintained as stable, reflecting the expectation of stable credit conditions over the next 12-18 months [1] Core Views - The life insurance industry experienced rapid premium growth in 2023, driven by the popularity of increasing whole life insurance products [1] - The industry faces challenges such as weak recovery in the agent channel, regulatory adjustments in the bancassurance channel, and pressure on profitability due to declining interest rates and poor investment performance [1] - The industry's solvency remains adequate, but the ability to replenish capital internally continues to decline [1] - With macroeconomic recovery and increasing demand for health, pension, and wealth management products, the life insurance industry is expected to maintain growth momentum [1] Regulatory Environment - The establishment of the National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) in 2023 has reshaped the financial regulatory landscape, enhancing systemic risk prevention and regulatory efficiency [2] - The NFRA has introduced stricter regulations, including the "Systemically Important Insurance Companies Assessment Measures" and the "Interim Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Pension Insurance Companies," to strengthen oversight and promote stable industry operations [2] - The "Regulatory Rating Measures for Life Insurance Companies" introduced in 2024 aim to classify life insurers based on risk levels and implement differentiated supervision to improve industry standards [3] Business Operations - In 2023, the life insurance industry achieved total premium income of 4.15 trillion yuan, a 9.33% increase year-on-year, driven by the strong sales of increasing whole life insurance products [8] - The industry's original premium income reached 3.54 trillion yuan, a 10.25% increase year-on-year, with the aging population and declining deposit rates creating significant demand for life insurance products [8] - The increasing whole life insurance segment saw a 12.76% growth in premium income, contributing 78.14% to the industry's total original premium income [10] - Health insurance premiums grew by 2.97% in 2023, while accident insurance premiums declined by 9.92% [12] Financial Analysis - The life insurance industry's profitability weakened in 2023 due to increased reserve provisions from declining interest rates and poor investment performance [19] - The industry's financial investment yield dropped to 2.29%, significantly lower than the 10-year average of 5.0% [20] - Listed life insurers reported a combined net profit of 2,054.87 billion yuan under the new accounting standards in the first three quarters of 2023, a 15.86% decline year-on-year [22] - Non-listed life insurers reported a combined net loss of 14.11 billion yuan in 2023, with 34 out of 59 companies experiencing losses [22] Asset Allocation and Investment - The life insurance industry maintained a diversified asset allocation strategy in 2023, with fixed-income instruments remaining the primary investment category [16] - Equity investments accounted for 12.59% of total assets, slightly lower than the previous year, due to market volatility [16] - The industry's investment assets reached 25.19 trillion yuan, with bond investments growing by 23.07% to 11.58 trillion yuan [16] - Regulatory policies have encouraged long-term capital investments in the stock market, with life insurers expected to increase their participation in the capital market [17] Capital and Solvency - The industry's comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio stood at 186.7% at the end of 2023, with the core solvency adequacy ratio at 110.5% [24] - External capital replenishment has become increasingly important, with 27 insurance companies approved for capital increases totaling 28.99 billion yuan in 2023 [25] - Capital replenishment bonds and perpetual capital bonds have emerged as key tools for life insurers to strengthen their capital base, with 16 companies issuing capital replenishment bonds totaling 76.4 billion yuan in 2023 [26] External Support - Large state-owned life insurers, foreign-funded insurers, and bank-affiliated insurers benefit from systemic and shareholder support, enhancing their stability and creditworthiness [27] - The "Systemically Important Insurance Companies Assessment Measures" introduced in 2023 aim to identify and regulate systemically important insurers, ensuring their stability during crises [27]