成本下移出栏增长 有望受益猪周期反转

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 24.96 CNY, compared to the current price of 20.82 CNY [8]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a reversal in the pig cycle, with a significant increase in both pig and chicken output. The report highlights a 46.65% year-on-year increase in pig output and a 9.51% increase in chicken sales for 2023 [3][4]. - Despite the growth in output, the company faced substantial losses in 2023 due to declining sales prices in the pig industry, leading to a net profit loss of 64 billion CNY [2][6]. - The company has a strong cash flow position, with 76 billion CNY in operating cash flow for 2023 and a cash interest coverage ratio at a high level, indicating financial stability [5]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 899 billion CNY, a 7.40% increase year-on-year, but reported a net loss of 64 billion CNY [2][6]. - For 2024, the company forecasts revenues of 1,115.99 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.13%, with a projected net profit of 69.20 billion CNY [6][7]. - The report indicates a decrease in production costs, with pig farming costs dropping to approximately 7.6 CNY per jin in Q1 2024, which is expected to improve profitability [4][6]. Production and Capacity - The company plans to increase chicken sales by 5%-10% and pig output to 30-33 million heads in 2024, with sufficient breeding stock to meet these targets [3][4]. - The breeding stock as of February 2024 was approximately 1.55 million sows, with an expected increase by the end of the year [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of 1.04 CNY for 2024, increasing to 2.38 CNY by 2026, reflecting a recovery in profitability [6][7]. - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24x for 2024, with a projected market capitalization growth based on historical valuation averages [6][7].