资产配置周报：首推红利指数

Group 1 - The report suggests a cautious increase in convertible bond positions, focusing on individual bond performance and quality, particularly in sectors like overseas expansion, automotive parts, resource products, and engineering machinery [6][43] - The convertible bond market has seen a recovery in trading volume, reaching a high since Q4 2023, with increased option value and a continued recovery in implied volatility [26][31] - The report recommends specific convertible bonds to watch, including Bo 23, Qilin, Guansheng, Yanpu, Kesi, Chaoda, Del, Haomei, Aidi, Beigang, and Ruichuang [6][43] Group 2 - The report highlights that the overall market for convertible bonds has improved, with the median price rising from 114 to approximately 117.5, and the conversion value increasing from 78 to 80 [17][26] - It notes that the implied volatility has increased, and the difference between implied volatility and historical volatility continues to recover [17][26] - The report identifies sectors with increased trading activity, particularly media, home appliances, and military industry, while some sectors have seen a rise in convertible bond valuations despite declines in underlying stocks [26][31] Group 3 - The report emphasizes a neutral outlook for remaining liquidity in the financial market, indicating that significant improvements are unlikely [6][31] - It suggests that the macroeconomic environment is expected to maintain a stable growth rate, with real GDP growth projected to fluctuate between 4-5% [61][49] - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, transportation, electronics, and communications based on policy perspectives [26][44]