资产配置周报（2024-5-11）：首推红利指数

Fiscal Policy - The net increase in government debt last week was 293.9 billion yuan, exceeding the planned 166.1 billion yuan[2] - The expected government debt net increase for this week is 79.7 billion yuan, with a projected government debt growth rate of 11.4% at the end of March, down from 12.0%[2] - The government debt growth rate is expected to further decline to approximately 10.4% by the end of April and around 9.9% by the end of the year[2] Market Outlook - The stock-bond valuation ratio currently favors equities, with a limited shift towards stocks expected during the tightening cycle[3] - The recommendation for this week includes a 50% allocation to the dividend index and a 30% allocation to the Shanghai 50 index[3] - The overall market performance has shown a cumulative outperformance of 6.42% over the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index since the strategy's inception[26] Industry Recommendations - Recommended sectors based on economic conditions include non-ferrous metals and transportation, while electronic and communication sectors are favored from a policy perspective[3][86] - The food and beverage, public utilities, textile and apparel, and banking sectors are also recommended based on industry rotation[3][86] Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market has seen a recovery in trading volume, reaching a high of 560 billion yuan in average daily trading last week, an increase of 18.7%[70] - The focus on convertible bonds includes specific recommendations for bonds such as the Bo 23 convertible bond and the Qilin convertible bond, among others[6][91] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected macroeconomic changes, policy easing beyond expectations, and significant deviations from asset price forecasts[5]