宏观周报（20240506-20240512）：地产限购政策放松，宏观数据噪声扰动增多

Economic Policy and Real Estate - Nationwide relaxation of real estate purchase restrictions, with only six cities maintaining limits, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and parts of Tianjin[22] - Real estate inventory reached a historical high of 760 million square meters in February 2024, surpassing the previous peak of 740 million square meters in February 2016[50] - The impact of relaxed purchase restrictions remains to be observed, as residents shift from profit maximization to minimizing liabilities, indicated by high national savings rates[26] Financial Market Trends - April inflation data suggests potential upward pressure on CPI due to low base effects from pork prices and supply adjustments[3] - The A/H premium rate has decreased to 137.3% as of May 10, 2024, down from a peak of 157.9% earlier in the year, with high premiums observed in sectors like agriculture and electronics[73] - Global inflation is projected to decline from an average of 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, indicating a significant reduction from the inflation peak of 2022[80] Commodity Market Insights - Cocoa prices have surged by 108% year-to-date, with a peak increase of 168%, while CME lean hogs and NYMEX RBOB gasoline have risen by 50% and 19%, respectively[78] - The Baltic Dry Index has risen above 2200 points, reflecting increased shipping costs due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains[76] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to guide lithium battery companies to reduce pure capacity expansion and focus on technological innovation and cost reduction[32] - Excavator sales in April 2024 reached 18,822 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.27%, indicating a recovery in the construction machinery sector[27]