Donghai Securities·2024-05-13 04:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" investment rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company demonstrated good operational resilience with excellent asset quality, as evidenced by a non-performing loan ratio of 0.84% and a provision coverage ratio of 326.87% [3][5] - The company's Q1 2024 revenue reached 89.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 25.93 billion yuan, down 1.35% year-on-year [3][4] - The bank's net interest income grew by 3.13% year-on-year, driven by stable asset scale expansion and a slowdown in net interest margin decline [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 total assets reached 16.33 trillion yuan, an 11.12% year-on-year increase, with total loans growing by 11.80% to 8.52 trillion yuan [4] - Retail loans accounted for 45.81% of new loans, while corporate loans made up 71.79% of the new loan structure [4] - The bank's management expenses increased by 7.61% year-on-year, outpacing revenue growth due to rising operational costs [3][4] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.84%, with overdue loan and attention loan ratios at 0.99% and 0.71%, respectively, reflecting industry trends [5][6] - The bank's provision coverage ratio decreased by 20.70 percentage points to 326.87%, primarily due to reduced provisioning efforts [6] Profitability Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2024-2026, estimating revenues of 354.3 billion, 376.2 billion, and 396.9 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 87.6 billion, 90.6 billion, and 92.9 billion yuan [6][7] - The projected return on equity (ROE) for 2024-2026 is 8.73%, 8.40%, and 8.14%, respectively, indicating a slight decline [7][8] Valuation Metrics - The estimated price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2024-2026 are 0.58, 0.54, and 0.51, respectively, based on the closing price of 5.00 yuan on May 10 [6][7] - The report highlights that the bank's historical burden is low, with a solid customer base and robust risk management practices [6][8]