业绩前瞻：核心业务利润释放强劲

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 23.6, indicating a potential upside of 22% [1][4][10]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's core business is back on an upward trajectory, with strong profit release expected in Q1 2024. Revenue is projected to grow by 25% year-on-year, driven by increased smartphone shipments and significant growth in the IoT segment, particularly in major appliances. The internet business is also expected to maintain stable growth due to an expanding user base [1][3]. - The report anticipates adjusted net profit to approach RMB 5.5 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 70%. After accounting for approximately RMB 2.5 billion in expenses from new automotive ventures, the adjusted core business profit is expected to be around RMB 8 billion [1][3]. - The management's confidence in the business outlook has improved, particularly regarding the high-end smartphone strategy and automotive business. The delivery forecasts for Xiaomi's automotive segment have been raised to 100,000 units in 2024 and 208,000 units in 2025, with revenue projections adjusted to RMB 23.7 billion and RMB 50.8 billion, respectively [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi from 2022 to 2026 are as follows: - 2022: RMB 280.0 billion - 2023: RMB 271.0 billion - 2024E: RMB 329.5 billion (22% growth) - 2025E: RMB 372.7 billion (13% growth) - 2026E: RMB 434.1 billion (16% growth) [3][6]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2022: RMB 8.5 billion - 2023: RMB 19.3 billion - 2024E: RMB 13.8 billion (126% growth) - 2025E: RMB 20.3 billion (28% growth) - 2026E: RMB 23.9 billion (47% growth) [3][6]. - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning target P/E ratios of 14.0x for smartphones, 16.0x for IoT, and 14.0x for internet services, with a target price of HKD 23.6 [1][7]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on stable profit release from core businesses, allowing Xiaomi to invest in building future technological barriers. The target price reflects the expected growth in various segments, including automotive [1][7].