Anjoy food(SH:603345) Guolian Securities·2024-05-13 14:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in performance in 2024, driven by new product launches and refined distribution channels [2][10] - The company's revenue for 2023 was 14.045 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.29%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.478 billion yuan, up 34.24% year-on-year [7] - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.755 billion yuan and a net profit of 438 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 17.67% and 21.24% respectively [7] Revenue Summary - The company's revenue growth in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 was 4.31% year-on-year, primarily due to a slow recovery in the restaurant sector and the impact of warm winter weather on end demand [8] - The strong revenue growth in Q1 2024 was attributed to better-than-expected restaurant performance during the Spring Festival, improved pricing policies, and adjustments in shipment schedules [8] Profitability Summary - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 increased by 2.58% year-on-year, driven by an improvement in gross margin despite impairment losses [9] - The increase in gross margin was mainly due to cost benefits and faster growth in higher-margin segments [9] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 15.831 billion yuan, 17.593 billion yuan, and 19.487 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.71%, 11.13%, and 10.77% respectively [10] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.646 billion yuan, 1.870 billion yuan, and 2.043 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.38%, 13.59%, and 9.23% respectively [10] - The target price for the company is set at 114.70 yuan, based on a 20.43 times PE ratio for 2024 [10]