宏观周度报告：进出口增速回升，社融、M1负增长

Market Sentiment and Commodity Trends - Bullish sentiment has cooled, with most domestic commodity markets adjusting downwards due to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and weak domestic realities being re-priced[1] - Agricultural products failed to maintain strong momentum, with most varieties experiencing declines[1] - The fluctuating geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to volatility in oil and shipping markets[1] Financial Data and Economic Indicators - In April, social financing decreased by 198.7 billion yuan, and M1 fell by 1.4% year-on-year, indicating a significant drop in financial data[2] - The decline reflects a policy intent to "de-emphasize new financing, activate existing funds, and prevent capital idling" amid weak investment and consumption demand[2] - April's new RMB loans totaled 730 billion yuan, significantly lower than the expected 743.3 billion yuan[14] Trade and Import/Export Performance - China's April exports grew by 1.5% year-on-year, while imports increased by 8.4%, both exceeding expectations[4] - The trade balance recorded a surplus of 72.35 billion USD, lower than the expected 81 billion USD[4] - The rebound in import growth is attributed to low base effects and a recovery in processing trade, despite weak domestic demand[6] Future Outlook - The economic recovery foundation remains unstable, with weak effective demand and low prices persisting[20] - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need for flexible use of monetary policy tools, with expectations for potential rate cuts in the second quarter[20] - The acceleration of government bond issuance and measures to handle existing real estate will likely stimulate investment and consumption demand[20]