大类资产每周观察

Economic Overview - US April economic data shows a cooling trend, with unemployment claims confirming this logic, leading to a decline in US Treasury yields and the dollar index[7] - China's April monetary demand and real economy data remain weak, influenced by last year's high base effect and structural policy adjustments[7] Market Performance - Hong Kong stocks led gains with a weekly increase of 7.44%, while crude oil experienced a significant decline of 6.77%[11] - The stock market is expected to maintain a rebound trend, driven by macro policy support and adjustments in US Treasury yields[40] Inflation and Monetary Policy - US inflation shows resilience, with the Federal Reserve's implied easing of inflation targets, leading to expectations of monetary policy loosening globally[8] - The market anticipates two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024, with a cumulative reduction of approximately 50 basis points[58] Investment Strategy - Recommended to buy risk assets (stocks) during sharp declines and short safe-haven assets (government bonds) during rebounds[8] - Focus on structural opportunities in manufacturing and commodities, particularly in agricultural products and non-ferrous metals[10] Real Estate and Consumer Demand - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell to 1.22 million square meters, a 53.5% decline compared to the same period in 2019, marking a seven-year low[46] - The real estate sector remains under pressure, but demand from first-time buyers supports the market's bottom[7] Risk Factors - Potential risks include US inflation and employment disturbances, slower-than-expected recovery of the domestic real economy, and geopolitical military conflicts[9]