当前经济与政策思考：日本出海全景扫描（成功经验、失败教训与形势比较）

Japan's Industrial Outbound Investment - The acceleration of Japan's industrial outbound investment is driven by the appreciation of the yen following the Plaza Accord and escalating trade frictions with developed countries, particularly the US [1] - Japan's manufacturing sector has experienced a hollowing out due to large-scale overseas transfer of capital, technology, and equipment, leading to a decline in domestic manufacturing's GDP share [2] - Despite the overall decline in manufacturing, high-end manufacturing has seen an increase in its share, with industries like integrated electronics and transportation equipment playing a significant role [7] Historical Phases of Industrial Outbound Investment - Phase 1 (1971-1984): Japan's outbound investment started with a focus on cost reduction, resource security, and market expansion, with North America and Asia being the primary destinations [12][14] - Phase 2 (1985-1990): Investment growth accelerated, with a shift towards developed regions like North America and Europe, while Asia's share declined [15][17] - Phase 3 (1990s onwards): Outbound investment continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace, with a shift in industry structure from manufacturing to non-manufacturing sectors [69][136] Key Drivers of Industrial Outbound Investment - Cost Reduction: Japan transferred marginal industries with lost comparative advantages to Asian countries to reduce operational costs, following the "Flying Geese" economic development theory [14] - Resource Security: Investments in resource-rich countries aimed to overcome domestic resource limitations, exemplified by Japan's oil investments in the Middle East [134] - Trade Friction Avoidance: To mitigate trade conflicts, Japan expanded its industrial presence in developed economies, leveraging local production and sales to reduce trade imbalances [109] Structural Changes in Japan's Manufacturing Sector - Japan's manufacturing sector shifted from labor-intensive industries like textiles to capital-intensive industries such as steel, chemicals, and machinery during the post-war period [55][64] - By the 1970s, Japan's manufacturing had transitioned to technology-intensive and processing-assembly industries, with a decline in heavy industries like steel and a rise in high-tech sectors like electronics [84] Impact of External Factors on Industrial Outbound Investment - Oil Crises: The 1973 and 1979 oil crises led to Japan's shift from energy-intensive industries to resource-saving and technology-intensive industries, accelerating outbound investment [24][47] - Trade Frictions: Escalating trade conflicts with the US, particularly in the semiconductor industry, forced Japan to adopt voluntary export restrictions and diversify its export markets [37][38] Cultural and Soft Power Outbound Strategies - Japan's cultural outbound strategy, known as "Cool Japan," has been instrumental in promoting Japanese culture globally, leveraging anime, manga, and other cultural products to enhance international influence [141][142] - The integration of cultural outbound strategies with economic outbound investments, such as using anime characters to promote government development aid, has been a unique approach to enhancing Japan's global image [142] Lessons for China from Japan's Outbound Investment Experience - Japan's experience highlights the importance of outbound investment in addressing domestic challenges like aging populations and industrial transformation, offering valuable lessons for China's own outbound strategies [113][184] - China can learn from Japan's success in high-end manufacturing and the pitfalls in industries like electronics, where Japan lost its competitive edge due to declining technological innovation [170][194]