安徽煤电龙头，业绩增长可期

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on WanNeng Power (000543.SZ) with a "Buy" investment rating [12][70]. Core Views - WanNeng Power, as a leading coal power company in Anhui, is expected to see continuous expansion in installed capacity. With electricity prices remaining high and an increase in the proportion of long-term coal contracts alongside a decrease in pithead coal prices, the company's profitability is anticipated to improve steadily [12][70]. - Revenue projections for WanNeng Power from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at CNY 29.579 billion, CNY 31.400 billion, and CNY 31.613 billion, with growth rates of 6.1%, 6.2%, and 0.7% respectively. Net profit is expected to be CNY 2.025 billion, CNY 2.279 billion, and CNY 2.458 billion, with growth rates of 41.7%, 12.5%, and 7.8% respectively [12][70]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - WanNeng Power is recognized as a leading coal power company in Anhui, with a steady increase in installed capacity. As of the end of 2023, the company had a total installed capacity of 14.94 million kW, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [39][43]. Performance and Growth - The company's revenue grew from CNY 13.42 billion in 2018 to CNY 27.87 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.7%. Net profit increased from CNY 560 million to CNY 1.43 billion during the same period, with a CAGR of 20.8% [39][44]. Price and Cost Dynamics - The report highlights that the electricity price in Anhui is expected to remain high due to strong demand and supply constraints. The average transaction price for direct electricity trading increased from CNY 346.8/MWh in 2020 to CNY 460.3/MWh in 2023 [40][50]. - The report anticipates a decrease in coal prices, benefiting the company's cost structure. The expected coal prices for 2024-2026 are CNY 983.2/ton, CNY 959.6/ton, and CNY 931.6/ton respectively [69][89]. Strategic Developments - WanNeng Power is transitioning towards becoming a comprehensive energy operator by acquiring high-quality assets and expanding its renewable energy portfolio. The company plans to add 4 million kW of renewable energy capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [32][93]. - The company has successfully commenced construction on a 300,000 kW wind power project and secured construction indicators for an 800,000 kW photovoltaic project [32][93]. Financial Projections - The financial forecasts indicate that the company's operating cash flow will remain robust, with net profits projected to reach CNY 2.025 billion in 2024, CNY 2.279 billion in 2025, and CNY 2.458 billion in 2026 [70][73].