Shouxiangu(SH:603896) Southwest Securities·2024-05-14 08:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold," indicating that the stock is expected to perform in line with the market over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue in 2023 due to economic slowdown and weak consumer demand, with total revenue of 533.58 million yuan, a decrease of 5.39% year-on-year. However, there was a recovery in Q1 2024, with revenue and profit showing growth [1][41]. - The company is focusing on strengthening research and development while actively expanding sales channels, including the establishment of specialized stores and enhancing its online presence [14][28]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 indicate a recovery, with expected growth rates of 11.08%, 11.14%, and 11.20% respectively, alongside a projected net profit growth of 11.24%, 17.48%, and 16.95% [2][29]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 533.58 million yuan, down 5.39% from the previous year, and a net profit of 254.48 million yuan, down 8.39% [41]. - For Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 220 million yuan, an increase of 7.15%, and a net profit of 80 million yuan, up 23.19% [41]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 82.72%, a slight decline of 1.7 percentage points, primarily due to decreased revenue from high-margin products [30]. Revenue Breakdown - The core product categories showed varied performance in 2023, with revenue from Ganoderma spore powder products at 533.3 million yuan, down 7.92%, while the internet sales channel grew by 7.35% to 210 million yuan [1]. - The company anticipates a recovery in sales for Ganoderma spore powder, projecting a 10% growth in sales volume from 2024 to 2026 [33]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 254.48 million yuan for 2024, 283.09 million yuan for 2025, and 332.56 million yuan for 2026, corresponding to dynamic PE ratios of 20, 17, and 14 respectively [2][29]. - The gross margin is expected to improve, reaching 88%, 89%, and 90% over the next three years due to stable fixed costs and increased sales [33].