铅锌价格超预期上涨，后续何去何从？

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as Positive [1] Core Views - Lead and zinc prices have risen more than expected since February, driven by financial attributes and supply-demand dynamics [1] - Zinc prices have rebounded nearly 20% from the bottom since February, while lead prices have risen over 10% [1] - The global manufacturing PMI has returned to the expansion zone, indicating a recovery in demand [1] - Zinc supply is tight on the mining side, with overseas production falling short of expectations, while domestic production is gradually recovering [10][11] - Lead supply is stable, with overseas mining production increasing slightly and domestic mining supply remaining resilient [42][43] - Zinc demand is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2024, with domestic demand growing at 3.5% and overseas demand at 1% [1] - Lead demand is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2024, with domestic demand growing at 2.3% and overseas demand at 2% [1] Zinc Supply and Demand - Overseas zinc mining production fell short of expectations in 2023, with a 2.3% year-on-year decline [10] - Domestic zinc mining production increased by 370,000 tons in 2023, driven by post-pandemic recovery [11] - Overseas zinc smelting production is gradually recovering, with Glencore's production increasing by 10% in 2023 [15] - Domestic zinc smelting production surged by 10.7% in 2023, driven by high profits and sufficient ore supply [16] - Zinc demand in 2024 is expected to be driven by domestic recovery, with overseas recession risks remaining [24] Lead Supply and Demand - Overseas lead mining production increased by 3.9% in 2023, with major contributions from Asia and the Americas [42] - Domestic lead mining production remained stable in 2023, with a slight increase in some regions [43] - Overseas lead smelting production increased by 3.1% in 2023, driven by the recovery of major smelters [45] - Domestic lead smelting production increased by 12.8% in 2023, driven by new capacity and improved technology [48] - Lead demand in 2024 is expected to be supported by replacement demand for lead-acid batteries, with domestic demand growing at 2.3% [65] Price Outlook - Zinc prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, with prices ranging between 20,000-25,000 yuan/ton in 2024 [1] - Lead prices are expected to remain in a wide range of fluctuations due to oversupply [1] - The supply gap for zinc is expected to widen from 2026, opening up room for price increases [1]