铝行业2023年报及2024一季报总结及展望：趋势上行，持续关注电解铝估值修复机会

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aluminum sector, with key companies such as Chalco, Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo Group, and Tianshan Aluminum all rated as "Overweight" [1][3] Core Views - In 2023, the aluminum sector experienced a year-on-year decline in profits due to high base effects, but a recovery was observed in Q1 2024, with a slight quarter-on-quarter decline [1] - Aluminum prices in 2023 showed a trend of being low in the first half and high in the second half, leading to a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit for aluminum companies [1] - In Q1 2024, aluminum prices fluctuated, with a recovery in sector performance, as revenue and net profit changes were -6.5% and +9.5% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The electrolytic aluminum sector saw a decline in performance in 2023 due to lower volumes and prices, but a recovery in Q1 2024 driven by improved profitability [2] - Aluminum processing companies faced pressure in 2023 due to increased competition and lower processing fees, but performance improved in Q1 2024 due to stable processing fees and increased demand [2] Sector Performance and Outlook Aluminum Sector Performance - In 2023, the non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan classification) rose by 3.6%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.7 percentage points, with the aluminum sector rising by 6.2% [7] - In Q1 2024, the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 14.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 9.3 percentage points, with the aluminum sector rising by 11.0% [7] - Key performers in 2023 included Haomei New Materials (+78.8%) and Chalco (+26.2%), while in Q1 2024, Chalco (+31.2%) and Shenhuo Group (+18.5%) led the gains [7][9] Aluminum Price Trends - Aluminum prices in 2023 were volatile, with a recovery in Q1 2024 driven by factors such as central bank reserve requirement cuts, seasonal demand, and supply disruptions [10] - In 2023, aluminum prices were supported by low inventory, strong consumption, and macroeconomic factors, with prices stabilizing in Q4 after a V-shaped recovery [10] - In Q1 2024, aluminum prices initially fell due to seasonal demand weakness but later rose due to supply-side disruptions and demand recovery [10] Demand and Supply Dynamics - In 2023, electrolytic aluminum demand grew steadily, driven by policies supporting property completions, photovoltaic module production, and new energy vehicle sales [12] - In Q1 2024, despite a decline in property completions, demand for aluminum in photovoltaics and new energy vehicles recovered, with apparent consumption growing by 9.3% year-on-year [12] - Supply growth slowed in 2023 due to power restrictions in Yunnan, with domestic electrolytic aluminum production reaching 41.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.59% [15] - In Q1 2024, Yunnan's production resumed earlier than expected, with domestic electrolytic aluminum production reaching 10.48 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [15] Cost and Profitability - The cost of electrolytic aluminum production has risen significantly since 2017, driven by increases in energy and raw material costs, with the average cost per ton rising by approximately 3,500 yuan [2] - In 2023, the average profit per ton for electrolytic aluminum companies such as Chalco, Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo Group, and Tianshan Aluminum declined year-on-year but showed a quarterly recovery trend [2] - In Q1 2024, the average profit per ton for the electrolytic aluminum industry was 1,684 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1,007 yuan but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 477 yuan [2] Dividend Trends - With the slowdown in capacity expansion, electrolytic aluminum companies have increased their dividend payout ratios, with Chalco, Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo Group, and Tianshan Aluminum all raising their dividend payouts in 2023 [26][27] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Chalco, Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo Group, and Tianshan Aluminum, as their high profitability is expected to continue due to limited capacity growth and steady demand [41] - The report also highlights the potential for increased dividends as balance sheets improve, with companies like Tianshan Aluminum and Nanshan Aluminum already implementing higher dividend payouts [26][27] - Additionally, the report suggests that the recovery in petroleum coke prices and the subsequent increase in prebaked anode prices could benefit companies like Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing [41]