结合上市行年报&一季报数据点评：银行行业：行业选股逻辑下，仍可适度关注规模指标

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking industry, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that scale expansion is a crucial indicator of sustainable growth for commercial banks, especially in the context of narrowing net interest margins and weak credit demand [2][8]. - It highlights that the differentiation in performance among listed banks is primarily explained by the pace of balance sheet expansion, with state-owned banks showing stronger growth compared to joint-stock banks [3][13]. - The report suggests that the current economic environment, particularly the real estate market's downturn, significantly impacts credit demand and, consequently, banks' scale growth [4][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Perspective on Commercial Bank Scale Expansion - The report notes that net interest margins are continuously narrowing, and scale expansion remains a strong driver of profit growth for banks [2][8]. - It predicts that scale growth will continue to positively influence profitability, despite challenges from weak economic recovery and declining net interest margins [8]. 2. Analysis of Performance Differentiation Among Listed Banks - Since 2022, profit growth rates for various types of listed banks have declined, with joint-stock banks experiencing a significant drop from 14.6% in 2021 to -3% in 2023 [3][13]. - The report identifies that the slower scale expansion of joint-stock banks is a key factor behind their declining profit growth [3][13]. 3. Examination of Scale Growth Differentiation - The report attributes the differentiation in scale growth to weak demand for credit, particularly influenced by the sluggish real estate market and pessimistic income expectations among residents [4][26]. - It mentions that despite policies aimed at stimulating demand, the real estate market has not shown signs of stabilization, affecting banks' credit growth [4][26]. 4. Investment Target Selection Based on Scale - The report outlines a strategy for selecting bank stocks based on three dimensions of scale growth: historical growth rates of interest-earning assets, sectors with rapid credit issuance, and regional credit growth rates [30]. - It identifies specific banks likely to maintain relative advantages in scale growth, including major state-owned banks and select joint-stock and city commercial banks [30][32].