2024年3月份季度及财年业绩展望

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Alibaba Group [1]. Core Insights - Alibaba Group is expected to report total revenue of 219.9 billion RMB for the quarter ending March 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 5.6% [4]. - The Taobao and Tmall Group is projected to achieve low single-digit revenue growth, with total revenue estimated at 92.5 billion RMB, where customer management revenue is expected to be 62.1 billion RMB, indicating that the growth rate of customer management revenue is still lower than that of sales [4]. - The growth strategy for the Taobao and Tmall Group focuses on a user-first approach and efficient operations to better serve the diverse Chinese consumer base [4]. - The online retail sales of physical goods in China grew by 11.6% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024, accounting for 23.3% of total retail sales of consumer goods [4]. - Adjusted EBITA is expected to slightly decline to 25.1 billion RMB, with the Taobao and Tmall Group's adjusted EBITA projected to decrease to 38.1 billion RMB, primarily due to higher-than-expected losses from non-Taobao businesses, including a one-time equity incentive distribution to employees following the withdrawal of Cainiao Group's IPO [7]. Summary by Sections Revenue Expectations - Total revenue for the quarter is anticipated to be 219.9 billion RMB, with a 5.6% year-over-year increase [4]. Taobao and Tmall Group Performance - Revenue for the Taobao and Tmall Group is expected to be 92.5 billion RMB, with customer management revenue at 62.1 billion RMB, showing a growth rate lower than sales [4]. Growth Strategy - The focus is on a user-first strategy and efficient operations to cater to a diverse consumer base in China [4]. Online Retail Growth - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 11.6% year-over-year, representing 23.3% of total retail sales [4]. EBITA Projections - Adjusted EBITA is projected to decline to 25.1 billion RMB, with the Taobao and Tmall Group's adjusted EBITA at 38.1 billion RMB, impacted by losses from other business segments [7]. Share Buyback Update - As of March 31, 2024, the company repurchased a total of 524 million shares at a total cost of 4.8 billion USD, resulting in a net decrease of 520 million shares compared to the previous quarter [8].