Perfect(SH:603059)2024-05-15 00:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10] Core Insights - The main business fundamentals have improved, and the company has entered the high-growth probiotic sector [5] - The acquisition of a 52% stake in Shan'enkang is expected to significantly benefit from domestic substitution in probiotic raw materials, enhancing growth potential [10] - The company has a strong R&D capability with 36 patents and 28 published SCI papers, which supports its competitive edge in the probiotic market [10][53] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,067 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.6% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is estimated at 154 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 66.5% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 1.53 yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.54 yuan by 2026 [5] Market and Industry Analysis - The global probiotic market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% from 2021 to 2026, with a market size of approximately 611 billion USD in 2021 [10] - The domestic probiotic market is also expanding, with a market size of around 880 billion yuan in 2020 and a CAGR of 17% from 2017 to 2020 [10] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for probiotics, particularly in the oral care segment, which is seeing increased consumer interest [10][14] Business Strategy and Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on expanding its own brand through e-commerce channels and has recently restructured its team to enhance product lines [10][59] - The acquisition of a 32% stake in a dental care brand is expected to provide significant support for the company's brand development [10][59] - The company aims to leverage its supply chain efficiency and production management to maintain stable profit margins in its contract manufacturing business [10][28] Production and Capacity Expansion - The company plans to increase its probiotic powder production capacity from 20 tons per year in 2023 to 40 tons per year in 2024 [10][56] - The addition of new freeze-drying machines is expected to facilitate this capacity expansion [10][56] - The company has a strong stock of over 7,000 proprietary strains, which positions it favorably in the domestic market [10][55]