社会服务 社会服务 2026 年 03 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 社会服务 沪深300 相关研究报告 《中东局势或利好中国香港地产持续 复苏，多特倍斯 2 月仍保持高增—行 业周报》-2026.3.15 《中国香港房价及租金回暖，市场维 持美国年内两次降息预期—行业周 报》-2026.3.8 《体验与首店经济驱动高端商业体， 三丽鸥上修全年预期—行业周报》 -2026.3.1 | 初敏（分析师） | 李睿娴（分析师） | 程婧雅（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | liruixian@kysec.cn | chengjingya@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书编号：S0790525020004 | 证书编号：S0790525070010 | liruixian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525020004 chengjingya@kysec.cn 证书编号：S07905 ...

同比+5.1%，跑赢社零大盘1.4pct、较2024年显著回暖，其中25H1、25H2分别同比增长2.9%、7.3%， 下半年行业增速改善明显 2 / CONTENTS 3 / 01 02 03 04 05 4 / 01 美妆大盘：化妆品增速回暖跑赢社零，线上天猫回暖、抖音降速 • 2025年化妆品社零同比增长5.1%跑赢社零，线上天猫、抖音平台增速收敛。据国家统计局，2025年限额以上单位化妆品累 零售额4653亿元，同比+5.1%，跑赢社零大盘1.4pct、较2024年显著回暖，其中25H1、25H2分别同比增长2.9%、7.3%， 下半年行业增速改善明显。重点线上平台方面，据久谦数据，2025年天猫、抖音美妆大盘分别同比+2%、+16%，抖音依 然为主要增量渠道，但2025Q3起线上渠道格局逐渐生变，25Q3天猫、抖音美妆个护品类分别同比+8%、+8%，两核心平 台增速收敛，且这一趋势延续至Q4，我们判断主要因天猫平台在即时零售的拉动下增速呈回暖态势，而抖音随着规模增 大、达播趋弱，增速有所放缓，电商渠道格局趋于稳定。 01 品类趋势：彩妆、个护品类增长强于护肤，个护新品牌破局 • 2025年彩妆、个护 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light industry and paper sector, anticipating performance improvements in 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights an acceleration in industry consolidation, with leading companies demonstrating resilience and a wait for demand recovery in 2026 [2][3]. - It predicts that the paper prices will continue to rise due to cost-driven factors, increased demand, and alleviated supply pressures, leading to improved profitability in Q4 2025 [4]. - The packaging and printing sector is expected to see a rise in profitability for leading companies, while some may experience declines due to optimization and potential impairments [4][9]. - The export sector shows a mixed performance, with companies having global supply chain advantages expected to maintain steady growth [4][12]. - The home furnishing sector is under pressure from policy changes, with soft furniture performing better than custom furniture [4][14]. - The light consumer goods sector is facing overall demand pressure, but individual companies are showing structural highlights [4][16]. Summary by Sections Paper Industry - The report forecasts improved profitability for companies like Sun Paper and BoHui Paper in Q4 2025, with expected net profits of 7.58 billion and 1.11 billion respectively, showing significant year-on-year growth [6][8]. - Companies like ShanYing International are expected to incur losses, with a projected net profit of -6.50 billion [8]. Packaging and Printing - YuTong Technology is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.23 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase [9][10]. - Companies like HeXing Packaging are projected to face losses, with a net profit of -0.25 billion [10]. Export Sector - Co-Creation Turf is expected to see a revenue increase of 24% year-on-year, reaching 8.59 billion, with a net profit of 1.64 billion [12][13]. - Companies like JiaYi Co. are projected to experience a decline in profits, with a net profit of 1.43 billion, down 29% year-on-year [12][13]. Home Furnishing - Companies like Gujia Home are expected to see a revenue of 48.62 billion in Q4 2025, with a net profit of 3.18 billion, reflecting a significant increase [14][15]. - Companies like Oppein Home are projected to face a 20% decline in net profit, estimated at 4.55 billion [15][17]. Light Consumer Goods - Companies like Guangbo are expected to achieve a net profit of 0.52 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase [16][19]. - Companies like Bull Group are projected to see a decline in net profit, estimated at 9.58 billion, down 5% year-on-year [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the paper and light industry sectors, highlighting potential improvements in domestic demand and the impact of tariff policy changes [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the expected marginal improvement in domestic demand, driven by real estate policy stabilization and consumer confidence recovery [2][10]. - The AI glasses market is anticipated to see significant growth, with Meta's sales surging and Apple's upcoming product launch expected to enhance market penetration [2][12]. - The paper industry is experiencing price stability and potential profitability improvements due to strong overseas production control and rising prices [2][14]. Summary by Sections Export Sector - Changes in tariff policies are expected to boost export performance, with recommendations for companies like 嘉益股份, 匠心家居, and 永艺股份 due to their strong performance certainty [2][4]. - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against additional tariffs and the introduction of a 10% global tariff are pivotal developments [4][10]. Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing industry is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies likely to catalyze upward valuation adjustments [2][10]. - The sector is witnessing accelerated consolidation, with mid-tier companies exiting and capital entering leading firms, enhancing industry concentration [2][11]. - Companies like 顾家家居, 索菲亚, and 欧派家居 are highlighted for their potential valuation recovery [2][11]. AI Glasses Sector - Meta's smart glasses sales have seen explosive growth, with a reported increase of nearly threefold, while Apple's anticipated entry is expected to further drive market penetration [2][11]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like 康耐特光学 and 明月镜片, which are well-positioned in this emerging market [2][12]. Paper Industry - The report notes that overseas pulp mills are showing strong production control intentions, leading to price increases [2][14]. - Companies like 太阳纸业 and 玖龙纸业 are recommended due to their integrated operations and cost advantages [2][14]. Domestic Demand - There is an expectation of marginal improvement in domestic demand, with companies like 百亚股份 and 公牛集团 identified as potential beneficiaries [2][17]. - The report highlights the importance of consumer confidence and spending power recovery in driving demand [2][17].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the home furnishing and paper industries, with specific recommendations for companies with high dividend safety margins and growth potential [3][5]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies expected to catalyze upward valuation movements. Industry consolidation is accelerating, and companies like Gujia Home, Sophia, and Oppein are highlighted for their strong dividend safety margins [3][5]. - In the paper industry, short-term stability in boxboard prices is noted, with an optimistic mid-term supply-demand balance expected to enhance industry profitability. Companies like Nine Dragons Paper are recognized for exceeding performance expectations [3][5]. - Bull Group is positioned for steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment, while new business areas such as overseas expansion and smart lighting present growth opportunities [3][5]. - Consumer sentiment is rebounding, with a focus on personal care growth stocks like Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou [3][5]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is experiencing a valuation bottom, with real estate policies likely to improve market sentiment and demand. The increase in second-hand housing transactions is expected to support the demand side, leading to a long-term expansion of the industry [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of industry consolidation since 2025, with mid-tier companies exiting the market and capital entering leading firms, enhancing industry concentration [6][16]. - Companies to watch include Gujia Home, Sophia, Oppein, Mousse, and Xilinmen, which are expected to benefit from valuation recovery [5][6]. Paper Industry - The report notes that boxboard prices are stable in the short term, with an anticipated improvement in the supply-demand structure that could enhance profitability in the mid-term. Companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper are highlighted for their strong positions [3][5]. - The report suggests monitoring the potential impact of anti-involution policies and demand changes, which could contribute to cyclical elasticity in the paper sector [7][8]. - Specific recommendations include focusing on companies with integrated supply chains and significant cost advantages, such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [7][8]. Bull Group - The Bull Group is expected to see steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment. The company is also expanding into new areas such as smart lighting and renewable energy, which are anticipated to drive growth [10][11]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages in product, channel, and supply chain management, which are expected to support stable growth in 2026 [10][11]. Consumer Goods - The report indicates a rebound in consumer sentiment, with a focus on personal care growth stocks. Companies like Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou are noted for their potential in the market [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home furnishing and paper industries, indicating potential for valuation recovery and growth opportunities [3][5]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies expected to catalyze upward valuation movements. Industry consolidation is accelerating, with a focus on companies with high dividend safety margins such as Gujia Home, Sophia, and Oppein [3][5]. - In the paper industry, short-term stability in corrugated box prices is noted, with an optimistic mid-term supply-demand balance expected to enhance industry profitability. Companies like Nine Dragons Paper are highlighted for exceeding performance expectations [3][5]. - Bull Group is positioned for steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment, while new ventures in overseas markets, smart lighting, and renewable energy are opening growth avenues [3][5]. - Consumer sentiment is rebounding, with a focus on personal care growth stocks such as Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou [3][5]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The sector is experiencing a valuation bottom, with real estate policies likely to improve market sentiment and demand. The increase in second-hand housing transactions is expected to support home furnishing demand, leading to a long-term expansion of the industry [5][6]. - The ongoing consolidation in the industry is pushing mid-tier companies out, while capital from industrial players is entering leading home furnishing firms, enhancing market concentration [5][6]. Paper Industry - Short-term price stability in corrugated boxes is observed, with a potential mid-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics expected to boost profitability. The report emphasizes the importance of integrated supply chains and cost advantages in companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [7][9]. - The report suggests that the paper industry is nearing a bottom, with cost structures supporting price stability and potential for upward movement in demand [7][9]. Bull Group - The company is expected to benefit from improving real estate conditions and consumer sentiment, with traditional business lines poised for recovery. New business areas such as smart lighting and renewable energy are anticipated to contribute to growth [11][12]. Consumer Goods - The report highlights a rebound in consumer sentiment, with a focus on personal care companies that are expected to show growth potential. Companies like Baiya and Dengkang Dental are noted for their promising performance in 2026 [14][15]. Packaging Industry - The report discusses the performance of overseas packaging companies, with Ball Corporation and Amcor showing strong results. Ball's revenue for FY25 reached $13.2 billion, a 12% increase year-on-year, while Amcor's revenue for FY26H1 was $11.2 billion, a 70% increase [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 0.88 billion to 1.32 billion yuan, driven by improvements in its subsidiaries' operations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant turnaround in profitability for the year 2025, with a net profit forecasted between 0.88 billion and 1.32 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year recovery [1] - The official annual report has not yet been announced [1] Group 2: Management Changes - On February 5, 2026, the company announced that employee stockholding platforms and some directors and executives plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2.99% of the total share capital, through centralized bidding or block trading [2] Group 3: Business Development - The company is accelerating its toothpaste OEM business and deepening cooperation with sensitive toothpaste brands, while also seeing significant growth in its online channels for its own brand [3] - The investment target, Weimei Zi, is maintaining high growth in Douyin GMV for 2025, and the commercialization of the AKK bacteria products from Shan'en Kang is expected to contribute to performance [3] Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Some brokerages released reports on February 7, 2026, maintaining an "outperforming the industry" rating and raising the target price to 48 yuan, but noted the need to monitor profitability pressures and the impact of trade frictions [4] Group 5: Stock Performance - As of February 10, 2026, the stock price closed at 40.97 yuan, down 2.06% for the day, with a net outflow of 603,500 yuan in principal funds, but the cumulative increase for the year reached 36.20% [5] - There is an intensifying tug-of-war between bulls and bears, necessitating caution regarding short-term profit-taking pressures [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Beijia Clean has experienced a significant stock price increase of 36.20% year-to-date, with recent trading activity showing a slight decline in stock price and net outflow of funds [2][1]. - As of February 10, Beijia Clean's stock price was reported at 40.97 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 4.115 billion yuan [1]. - The company has a diverse revenue structure, with 35.13% from other products, 33.23% from toothbrushes, 24.81% from wet wipes, and 6.83% from probiotics [2]. Group 2 - Beijia Clean's revenue for the first nine months of 2025 reached 1.119 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.75%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 77.0674 million yuan, up 84.58% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 115 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 46.145 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. - The company is categorized under the beauty and personal care industry, specifically in the personal care and hygiene products sector, and is involved in the research, production, and sales of oral hygiene and disposable sanitary products [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the cosmetics industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [5]. Core Insights - The beauty industry is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, driven by product innovation and the rising trend of domestic brands. The report suggests a bottom-up selection of high-growth products and brands with strong potential, as well as companies that exhibit resilience amid product and channel changes [2][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the cosmetics sales during the off-peak season have shown marginal improvement. It suggests focusing on products and brands with strong growth momentum and resilience in the face of changing product and channel dynamics [2]. Key Investment Points - The report identifies two main lines of investment: 1. **High-Growth Companies**: Companies like RuYuchen, BeiJiaJie, MaoGePing, LinQingXuan, and ShangMei are expected to perform well due to strong fundamentals and product innovation [5]. 2. **Brands with Strong Asset Value**: Companies such as BeiTaiNi and PoLaiYa are anticipated to see marginal improvements following adjustments in their channels and product structures [5]. Market Performance - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the retail sales of cosmetics in December 2025 grew by 8.8% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall retail growth of 0.9%. The annual retail sales for cosmetics in 2025 reached 465.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [5]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E. For instance, RuYuchen has an EPS of 0.59 yuan for 2025E with a PE of 60, while BeiTaiNi has an EPS of 1.10 yuan for 2025E with a PE of 43 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company Beijiajie (603059.SH) announced plans for share reductions by its shareholders and executives, indicating potential liquidity events and changes in ownership structure [1][2][3]. Group 1: Shareholder Reduction Plans - Shareholder Nanjing Xiaobei No.1 Enterprise Management Consulting Partnership plans to reduce up to 2,100,000 shares, representing 2.0906% of total shares, with a maximum of 700,000 shares through centralized bidding and 1,400,000 shares through block trading [1]. - Shareholder Nanjing Xiaobei No.2 Enterprise Management Consulting Partnership plans to reduce up to 900,000 shares, representing 0.8960% of total shares, with a maximum of 300,000 shares through centralized bidding and 600,000 shares through block trading [2]. - The reduction period for both shareholders is set for three months starting from 15 trading days after the announcement [1][2]. Group 2: Executive Share Reductions - Company director and CFO Ji Yufang plans to reduce up to 3,000 shares, representing 0.0030% of total shares, while Vice General Manager and Secretary of the Board Xue Yunpu also plans to reduce up to 3,000 shares, representing 0.0030% of total shares [2]. - Both executives will execute their reduction plans within the same three-month period following the announcement [2]. Group 3: Control and Ownership Structure - The actual controller of the company, Zhang Wensheng, serves as the executive partner for both Nanjing Xiaobei No.1 and No.2, establishing a concerted action relationship among the three entities [3]. - Nanjing Xiaobei No.1 holds 5,662,500 shares (5.6372% of total shares) and Nanjing Xiaobei No.2 holds 3,550,000 shares (3.5341% of total shares) [2]. Group 4: Previous Reduction Results - As of October 16, 2025, Nanjing Xiaobei No.1 had reduced 1,212,500 shares (1.2071% of total shares) for approximately 30.84 million yuan, while Nanjing Xiaobei No.2 reduced 575,000 shares (0.5724% of total shares) for approximately 14.24 million yuan [4]. - Previous reductions by executives Ji Yufang and Xue Yunpu were completed with a total of 4,000 shares each, representing 0.0040% of total shares [5].