中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收肖雨：年报透视：城投入股上市公司有何新变化？

Core Views - The report focuses on the new trends in local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) investing in listed companies and analyzes the potential debt coverage through equity transfers, stock pledges, and dividends [5][10] - It also provides a comprehensive analysis of Japan's overseas expansion strategies, offering insights into China's potential approaches to address challenges such as aging population, insufficient domestic demand, industrial transformation, and trade frictions [5] - Additionally, the report reviews the development history and key features of exchangeable bonds (EBs), highlighting their risks and investment frameworks [10][12] LGFVs Investing in Listed Companies - The number of LGFVs investing in listed companies has been increasing since 2017, peaking in 2021 with 518 LGFVs, and slightly declining to 574 in 2023 [10] - The total market value of LGFV-held listed companies reached its highest point in 2021 but dropped by over 10% to 2349.18 billion yuan in 2023 [10] - As of December 31, 2023, 890 listed companies had LGFVs among their top ten shareholders, with a total market value of 2349.18 billion yuan [10] - The top three provinces with the highest number of LGFV-held listed companies are Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Beijing, while Sichuan, Jiangsu, and Guangdong have the highest market value of LGFV-held shares [10] - LGFVs primarily invest in industries such as utilities, non-bank financials, and transportation, with most investments concentrated in eastern China [10] Debt Coverage Analysis - Through equity transfers, if only minority shareholders sell their shares, the national debt coverage would be 209.99 billion yuan, while selling all LGFV-held shares could generate 1031.20 billion yuan [10] - Stock pledges by LGFVs amounted to 90.98 billion yuan as of December 31, 2023, with an average pledge ratio of 53.49% [10] - The maximum debt coverage from stock pledges is estimated at 564.55 billion yuan, with Sichuan, Jiangsu, and Guangdong being the top provinces in terms of pledged funds [10] - Dividends from LGFV-held listed companies could provide between 44.37 billion yuan and 72.55 billion yuan in debt coverage for 2025 and 2026, depending on the dividend yield [10] Japan's Overseas Expansion Strategies - Japan's overseas expansion can be categorized into four types: product exports, industrial exports, foreign aid, and cultural exports, covering both hard and soft power [5] - Japan's strategies to address challenges such as aging population and insufficient domestic demand include industrial exports to mitigate labor shortages and product exports to supplement domestic demand [5] - Japan's low-end industrial exports created space for domestic industrial transformation, while mid-to-high-end industrial exports drove technological upgrades [5] - In response to trade frictions, Japan compromised on product exports while using industrial exports and cultural diplomacy to enhance its international standing [5] Exchangeable Bonds (EBs) - EBs are bonds issued by shareholders of listed companies that can be exchanged for shares under certain conditions, serving purposes such as reducing holdings, financing, and mergers and acquisitions [12] - As of April 2024, 427 EBs have been issued, totaling 523 billion yuan, with private placements accounting for 94% of the total number and 77% of the total issuance [12] - EBs face credit and liquidity risks, with 20 EBs defaulting between 2018 and 2019, primarily involving private placements and investment holding companies [12] - Key terms of EBs include conversion clauses, downward adjustment clauses, call clauses, and put clauses, with some EBs also featuring upward adjustment clauses [12] - EBs can be categorized into equity-oriented and debt-oriented types, depending on the issuer's objectives and the bond's terms [12]