宏观周报：解释纷纷扰扰，难改弱的本质

Economic Data Insights - Recent economic data from the US and Europe has shown weakness, leading to a decline in 10-year government bond yields in both regions[13] - The US dollar index has experienced a temporary pullback due to the greater-than-expected economic slowdown in the US compared to the Eurozone[13] Inflation and Consumer Expectations - Inflation expectations are rising, with the University of Michigan's one-year inflation expectation increasing to 3.5% and the five-year expectation at 3.1%, both at historical highs[16] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is slowly recovering, primarily driven by commodity prices, while service sector growth remains stagnant at 0.8%[32] Financial Data Analysis - The total social financing (社融) has shown a negative growth of -1,987 billion RMB in April 2024, marking the first negative reading since October 2005[37] - M1 and M2 growth rates are both declining, indicating a contraction in money supply, with M1 showing negative year-on-year growth[39] Policy and Market Outlook - Current policies are seen as short-term measures that may not effectively address long-term economic issues, suggesting a continued bullish trend in the bond market[40] - The largest market disturbances are attributed to central bank attitudes and government debt supply fluctuations[42]