Quality growth strategy underpins strong earnings growth

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a target price of HK$480.00, up from a previous target of HK$445.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price of HK$381.80 [1]. Core Insights - The company's quality growth strategy is expected to drive strong earnings growth, with non-IFRS net income projected to grow at a CAGR of 15% over FY24-26E. The report raises FY24-26E earnings forecasts by 6-8% [1]. - Total revenue for 1Q24 increased by 6% YoY to RMB159.5 billion, with a gross profit margin (GPM) expansion of 7.1 percentage points YoY to 52.6% [1][2]. - The report highlights a recovery in domestic games gross receipts and strong growth in advertising revenue, particularly from Weixin ad properties [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 609.0 billion in FY23A to RMB 661.9 billion in FY24E, with adjusted net profit expected to rise from RMB 157.7 billion in FY23A to RMB 199.5 billion in FY24E [2][26]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to increase from RMB 16.66 in FY23A to RMB 20.60 in FY24E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][26]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 51.1% in FY23A to 53.0% in FY24E, indicating enhanced profitability [2][26]. Segment Performance - Online games revenue is projected to recover, with a slight decline of 2% YoY in 1Q24, but expected to rebound in subsequent quarters [1][3]. - Advertising revenue grew by 26% YoY to RMB 26.5 billion in 1Q24, driven by high-margin Weixin ad properties [1][3]. - Business services revenue increased by 7% YoY to RMB 52.3 billion in 1Q24, supported by strong growth in cloud revenue [1][3]. Valuation Breakdown - The target price of HK$480.0 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, with HK$182.0 attributed to the online games business, HK$85.6 to the advertising business, and HK$20.7 to the cloud business [4][5][6]. - The valuation reflects a premium for the company's strong market position and growth potential in various segments [4][5][6].