MENGTIAN(SH:603216) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-05-15 04:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.18 RMB, down from the previous target of 17.16 RMB [9][16] Core Views - The company is expected to expand its product categories and improve market share through brand transformation and intelligent product offerings in 2024 [9] - The company's revenue in 2023 was 1.317 billion RMB, a decrease of 5.16% YoY, with cabinet revenue growing by 16.03% YoY, becoming a key driver of performance [14] - The company's gross margin in 2023 was 28.11%, a decrease of 3.82 percentage points YoY, while the net margin was 7.27%, a decrease of 8.60 percentage points YoY [14] - The company's home decoration channel revenue grew significantly by 130.21% YoY in 2023, driven by strategic partnerships with leading home decoration companies [14] Financial Performance - The company's operating income in 2022 and 2023 was 1.389 billion RMB and 1.317 billion RMB, respectively, with a projected increase to 1.449 billion RMB in 2024 [14] - The company's EBIT in 2022 and 2023 was 208 million RMB and 65 million RMB, respectively, with a projected increase to 132 million RMB in 2024 [14] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders in 2022 and 2023 was 220 million RMB and 96 million RMB, respectively, with a projected increase to 131 million RMB in 2024 [14] - The company's operating cash flow in 2022 and 2023 was 130 million RMB and 309 million RMB, respectively, with a projected increase to 197 million RMB in 2024 [14] Valuation and Ratios - The company's PE ratio in 2022 and 2023 was 10.63x and 24.48x, respectively, with a projected decrease to 17.92x in 2024 [14] - The company's ROE in 2022 and 2023 was 12.4% and 5.4%, respectively, with a projected increase to 7.0% in 2024 [14] - The company's ROIC in 2022 and 2023 was 10.3% and 3.3%, respectively, with a projected increase to 6.3% in 2024 [14] - The company's EV/EBITDA in 2022 and 2023 was 8.43x and 13.54x, respectively, with a projected decrease to 6.31x in 2024 [14] Industry and Competitive Analysis - The report compares the company with peers such as Ruierte, Jiangxin Home, and Xilinmen, with an average 2024 PE ratio of 17x for comparable companies [9][10] - The company is expected to benefit from brand upgrades and product structure optimization, particularly through the expansion of intelligent product lines [14] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 10% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, reaching 1.449 billion RMB, 1.594 billion RMB, and 1.753 billion RMB, respectively [14] - The company's net profit is expected to grow by 37% in 2024, 17% in 2025, and 16% in 2026, reaching 131 million RMB, 153 million RMB, and 177 million RMB, respectively [14] - The company's operating margin is expected to improve from 4.9% in 2023 to 9.1% in 2024, 9.7% in 2025, and 10.2% in 2026 [14]