2024EHA中BCMAxCD3双抗数据点评：BCMA双抗数据优异，IL17获批在即

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 54.07 CNY, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 48.35 CNY [20][22]. Core Insights - The company has presented excellent Phase I data for GR1803 (BCMAxCD3) targeting multiple myeloma at the 2024 EHA, indicating potential as a new treatment option [20][22]. - The absolute valuation of the company is estimated at 19.825 billion CNY, corresponding to a reasonable per-share equity value of 54.07 CNY [20][22]. - The market for multiple myeloma treatments is significant, with a large unmet need, and the company’s dual antibody therapy shows promising safety and efficacy profiles [20][22]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to have revenues of 85 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 579 million CNY by 2026, reflecting a substantial growth trajectory [23]. - The net profit (attributable to the parent) is expected to improve from -727 million CNY in 2024 to -350 million CNY in 2026 [23]. - The company’s operating profit margin is projected to improve significantly over the forecast period, indicating a potential turnaround in profitability [23]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes the FCFF model for valuation, with key assumptions including a risk-free rate of 2.29%, a market expected return of 8.44%, and a WACC of 7.93% [6][7]. - The sensitivity analysis indicates that the reasonable stock price varies with changes in WACC and perpetual growth rates, reinforcing the robustness of the valuation [8]. Market Context - The report highlights the competitive landscape for multiple myeloma therapies, noting that while CAR-T therapies have higher efficacy, dual antibodies like GR1803 offer lower costs and better safety profiles [20][22]. - The global incidence of multiple myeloma is significant, with 187,900 new cases reported in 2022, indicating a large market opportunity for effective treatments [20][22].