Haisco(SZ:002653) Guoxin Securities·2024-05-15 09:00Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside in stock price [2][31]. Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its anesthetic product sales, with a 94.5% year-on-year increase. The core product, Remimazolam, is expected to submit an NDA in the U.S. within the year [2][31]. - The company has entered a harvest phase for its innovative drug pipeline, with 12 Class 1 innovative drugs in clinical stages. Notable products include HSK16149 for diabetic peripheral neuropathy and HSK21542 for postoperative pain [3][31]. - The financial forecast predicts revenue growth from CNY 40.15 billion in 2024 to CNY 58.85 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to rise from CNY 4.51 billion to CNY 9.16 billion during the same period [3][31]. Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue (CNY million): 3,015 in 2022, 3,355 in 2023, projected 4,015 in 2024, 4,931 in 2025, and 5,885 in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 8.7%, 11.3%, 19.7%, 22.8%, and 19.3% respectively [1][3]. - Net profit (CNY million): 277 in 2022, 295 in 2023, projected 451 in 2024, 659 in 2025, and 916 in 2026, with growth rates of -19.7%, 6.5%, 52.7%, 46.3%, and 39.0% respectively [1][3]. - Earnings per share (CNY): 0.26 in 2022, 0.26 in 2023, projected 0.40 in 2024, 0.59 in 2025, and 0.82 in 2026 [1][3]. - EBIT Margin: Expected to increase from 4.9% in 2022 to 16.9% in 2026 [1][3]. - Return on Equity (ROE): Projected to rise from 9.1% in 2022 to 15.5% in 2026 [1][3]. - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE): Expected to decrease from 117.3 in 2022 to 36.7 in 2026 [1][3]. - Price-to-Book Ratio (PB): Expected to decline from 10.70 in 2022 to 5.69 in 2026 [1][3]. Product Performance - Anesthetic products generated CNY 8.50 billion in sales, a 94.5% increase year-on-year. The core product, Remimazolam, has gained significant market share in the domestic intravenous anesthesia market [2][3]. - The company’s nutritional products generated CNY 6.15 billion in sales, a slight decline of 4.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 60.79% [2][3]. - The oncology antiemetic and hepatobiliary digestive products generated sales of CNY 2.12 billion and CNY 0.67 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -20.3% and +1.5% [2][3]. Valuation - The absolute valuation range for the company is estimated to be between CNY 31.95 and CNY 34.38, indicating a potential upside of 6% to 14% from the current stock price [3][31]. - The relative valuation suggests a price range of CNY 33.40 to CNY 35.25 based on comparable companies in the industry [3][31].