东兴证券东兴晨报

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the relationship between credit growth and economic growth in China is expected to weaken, influenced by structural economic changes and diminishing effects of credit investment [2][3] - It suggests that within the banking sector, attention should be paid to scale indicators to identify growth premium opportunities, despite the overall downward trend in industry scale [2] Industry Overview - The net interest margin (NIM) of commercial banks continues to narrow, primarily due to a faster decline in asset-side interest rates compared to liability-side rates, reflecting weak financing demand and policy-driven concessions by banks [3][4] - The profitability of listed banks has been significantly impacted, with the growth rate of profits for joint-stock banks dropping from 14.6% in 2021 to -3% in 2023, indicating a notable decline [4] - The report highlights that the expansion of scale is a crucial factor driving profit growth, especially in the context of a weak economic recovery and ongoing downward pressure on NIM [3][4] Financial Performance - The report notes that the growth rate of various types of listed banks has been diverging since 2022, with state-owned banks and some regional banks expected to maintain a leading growth rate, while joint-stock banks lag behind [4][15] - The report indicates that the real estate market's downturn has led to weak financing demand from both corporate and residential sectors, significantly affecting banks' scale growth [4][15] Credit and Financing Trends - In April, new RMB loans amounted to 730 billion, with a significant contraction in household loans, reflecting ongoing deleveraging in the residential sector [20][36] - The report mentions that corporate loans saw a slight increase, but the demand remains weak, particularly in the context of slow government bond issuance and cooling infrastructure investment [20][36] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-growth regional small banks and stable state-owned banks with high dividend yields, as the industry faces downward pressure on revenue and profit expectations [22][40] - It suggests that the high dividend configuration value of stable state-owned banks remains prominent, alongside the growth logic of high-quality regional small banks [23][40]