煤炭行业2023、2024Q1总结：下行风险释放，展望更高弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The downward risk for coal prices in 2024 has been released, confirming a mid-term price bottom at 800 RMB/ton after a second bottoming out [2][6] - The coal sector is undergoing a valuation reshaping, reflecting profound supply-demand structural changes and a shift towards a "utility-like" model, alongside a preference for high-dividend assets in a low-risk yield environment [2][6] - The report recommends leading companies with high profitability and stability, including Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, as well as companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration and long-term coal contracts [2][6] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Overview - The coal market in 2023 remained highly prosperous, with a tight balance continuing; the mid-term price bottom is becoming clearer at over 800 RMB/ton [6][8] - In Q1 2024, coal prices experienced a second bottoming, with both coking coal and thermal coal prices remaining above the lowest points of 2023, validating the price bottom [6][8] 2. Industry Review - In 2023, the overall coal supply and demand maintained high prosperity, with a 2.9% increase in coal production to 4.66 billion tons [13][15] - The first quarter of 2024 saw a 4.1% decline in coal production, indicating a shift from "increased production to ensure supply" to "steady production to ensure supply" [13][17] 3. Performance Analysis - The coal industry saw a decline in overall profitability in 2023, with total revenue reaching 3.5 trillion RMB, down 13.1% year-on-year, and total profit down 25.3% [26][30] - In Q1 2024, the industry experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit, with total revenue at 770.36 billion RMB, down 18.5% year-on-year, and total profit at 152.69 billion RMB, down 33.5% [27][30] 4. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a more optimistic demand outlook in H2 2024, driven by infrastructure investments and a potential recovery in real estate expectations [6][28] - The coal price bottom has been confirmed, and while Q2 prices may still decline, the year-on-year drop is expected to narrow to around 10% [28][30]