2024年一季报点评：每于寒尽觉春生

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [3]. Core Views - The company's operational rhythm remains steady throughout the year, with continuous upward momentum in channel capabilities. The company is expanding its diversified channel layout and enhancing cooperation in emerging channels such as catering and snacks for its seed business. The nut business is also expanding its terminal reach, with increased investment in holiday group purchases and gift boxes. The procurement prices for sunflower seeds, a key raw material, are expected to decline further, which may lead to a recovery in profitability quarter by quarter. The company is expected to have significant profit elasticity for the entire year. The report emphasizes the importance of the company's internal growth momentum, with a clear trend of improvement observed each quarter. As an industry leader, the company's advantages in the supply chain are expected to gradually alleviate cost pressures. The estimated EPS for 2024 and 2025 is 2.17 and 2.57 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 16 and 14 times. Additionally, the company's dividend payout ratio for 2023 has increased to 62.55%, and with ample cash on hand, the company is expected to continue enhancing its capabilities [3][15][16]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.822 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.39%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 240 million yuan, up 35.15% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 221 million yuan, reflecting a 55.80% year-on-year growth [15]. - The company's net profit margin decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 13.2% in Q1 2024, with a gross margin increase of 1.92 percentage points to 30.43%. The expense ratio decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 15.10%. The sales expense ratio increased by 1.68 percentage points, while the management and R&D expense ratios decreased by 1.47 and 0.45 percentage points, respectively. The financial expense ratio decreased by 0.31 percentage points. The overall profitability is expected to enter a recovery phase as raw material prices decline and the scale effect of nuts becomes evident [16][21].