BOCOM International·2024-05-16 08:02Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of NIO Inc. to "Buy" [3][15]. Core Views - The launch of the new sub-brand "Ladao" and its first model L60 is expected to drive NIO's sales into a second growth curve, with a pre-sale price of 219,900 RMB, which is considered attractive [2][3]. - The L60 model offers unique charging experiences under 200,000 RMB, including a 900V high-voltage system and support for battery swapping, which differentiates it from competitors [2]. - The report predicts a steady monthly sales volume of 9,000 to 10,000 units for the L60, which will be a key driver for NIO's sales growth [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 13% and 21% respectively, reflecting higher sales expectations for the Ladao brand [3]. - Total sales for NIO are projected to grow by 57.6% in 2025 and 22.0% in 2026, reaching 300,000 and 370,000 units respectively [3]. - The report anticipates that NIO's monthly sales, combined with Ladao, will stabilize at 25,000 to 30,000 units next year, aiding in valuation recovery [3]. Price Target - The target price for NIO has been raised to HKD 59.88 (USD 7.7), up from HKD 40.3 (USD 5.1) [3][15]. Market Performance - NIO's current stock price corresponds to a forecasted price-to-sales ratio of 1.13 for 2024, which reflects some long-term loss factors [3]. Financial Overview - The report provides a financial overview, indicating projected revenues of 62,847 million RMB for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13% [6][16]. - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 20,844 million RMB in 2023 to a loss of 16,867 million RMB in 2024 [6][16]. Competitive Positioning - The L60 model is compared favorably against Tesla's Model Y in terms of space and features, with larger dimensions and better headroom [10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive advantages of the L60 in the market, particularly in the under 200,000 RMB segment [2].