Guohai Securities·2024-05-16 10:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][44]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2024 reached 2,219 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 7% and exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 2,198 billion RMB [20][21]. - The company is focusing on enhancing shareholder returns, having repurchased a total of 12.49 billion shares for 125 billion USD in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, and plans to distribute a dividend of 4 billion USD [9][20]. - The international digital commerce segment saw a significant revenue increase of 45% year-over-year, reaching 274 billion RMB, driven by strong order growth and improved monetization rates [22][65]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2,219 billion RMB, with an operating profit of 148 billion RMB and a net profit of 9 billion RMB [20][21][83]. - The adjusted EBITDA was 308 billion RMB, slightly above expectations, but the net profit showed a significant decline of 86% year-over-year [20][21]. Business Segment Performance - The Taotian Group reported a revenue of 932 billion RMB, a 4% increase year-over-year, benefiting from a double-digit growth in online GMV and order volume [48][84]. - The international digital commerce group generated 274 billion RMB in revenue, marking a 45% increase, with strong contributions from the AliExpress Choice business [22][65]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue was 256 billion RMB, reflecting a 3% year-over-year growth, with core public cloud products showing double-digit growth [14][66]. Financial Projections - The company expects revenues for FY2025 to FY2027 to be 1,025.59 billion RMB, 1,133.19 billion RMB, and 1,255.16 billion RMB, respectively, with adjusted net profits projected at 168.7 billion RMB, 195.3 billion RMB, and 218.8 billion RMB [44][69]. - The target market capitalization for FY2025 is set at 2,075.6 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 110 HKD per share [44][69]. Shareholder Returns - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, with a total of 48 billion USD spent on buybacks in the latest quarter [9][20]. - The board has approved a dividend of 4 billion USD for the fiscal year, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder value [9][20]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is preparing for a dual primary listing in Hong Kong, expected to be completed by the end of August 2024, which may enhance stock liquidity and support valuation recovery [9][20]. - The Taotian Group's strategy focuses on user-centric initiatives, with a significant increase in 88VIP membership, indicating a growing consumer engagement [48][84].