Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to ZTO Express [2] Core Views - ZTO Express is the leading player in China's e-commerce express delivery sector, achieving a revenue of HKD 38.419 billion in 2023, with express services accounting for HKD 35.488 billion (92.4% of total revenue) [5][11] - The company completed a total of 30.202 billion express deliveries in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.8% and a market share of 22.9% [5][11] - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.1% for express delivery volumes from 2024 to 2026, driven by the continued optimization of online channel costs and the growth of e-commerce penetration [5][51] Company Overview - ZTO Express has maintained its position as the top express delivery service provider in China since 2016, with a consistent market share in delivery volumes [5][11] - The company's revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% from 2017 to 2023, with express delivery volumes growing at a CAGR of 30.1% during the same period [15] Industry Dynamics - The report highlights that the core driver of the industry is online consumption, which continues to grow as online channels optimize their costs [5][33] - The efficiency of online channels is expected to replace less efficient offline distribution channels, leading to an increase in e-commerce penetration [51] Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for ZTO Express from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at HKD 43.084 billion, HKD 47.989 billion, and HKD 53.065 billion, respectively [5][106] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be HKD 10.256 billion, HKD 11.481 billion, and HKD 12.866 billion for the same period, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 12.62, HKD 14.12, and HKD 15.83 [5][106] - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express is transitioning from operational leadership to shareholder return leadership, with significant cash dividends and stock buyback plans in place [19][100]
中通快递-W：从经营领先到股东回馈领先