HAIDILAO(06862) 浦银国际证券·2024-05-17 04:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Haidilao (6862.HK) due to high current valuation despite strong recovery in table turnover rates [1]. Core Views - Haidilao has shown a strong recovery in table turnover rates, outperforming other players in the restaurant sector, attributed to effective marketing strategies and store management [1]. - The company is expected to face short-term challenges with a slowdown in table turnover growth in 2Q24 and a decline in profit margins in 1H24 due to high base effects [1]. - The current valuation is considered high, with 11x 2024E EV/EBITDA and 20x 2024E P/E, leading to potential downside risks for the stock price [1]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 41,453 million RMB in 2023 to 46,861 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase [2][4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 4,499 million RMB in 2023 to 5,018 million RMB in 2024, representing an 11.5% year-on-year growth [2][4]. - The operating profit margin is forecasted to slightly expand in 2024, despite facing pressure in 1H24 due to increased labor costs [1][4]. Store Expansion Plans - Haidilao plans to open between 60 to 100 new stores in 2024, primarily in second-tier cities, with a focus on the second half of the year [1]. - The company has opened only 4 new stores year-to-date, indicating a cautious approach to expansion [1]. Customer Metrics - The average customer spending is expected to rise to approximately 102 RMB in 2024, up from 99 RMB in 2023 [1]. - The overall table turnover rate is anticipated to exceed 30% year-on-year growth in 1Q24, with expectations of maintaining a high range of 3-4 times in 2Q24 [1].