GF SECURITIES·2024-05-17 06:32Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [12][23]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 5% year-on-year for FY24Q4, driven by its main businesses including Taobao, Cainiao, and international operations [18][23]. - The adjusted EBITA for FY24Q4 was 24 billion RMB, reflecting a margin of 10.8% [18]. - The report highlights a significant increase in revenue from the Cloud Intelligence Group, which grew by 45% year-on-year to 142 billion RMB, driven by higher adoption rates of public cloud services [18][23]. - The international business also showed strong performance, with a 45% increase in revenue, largely due to a 70% growth in orders from AliExpress [18][23]. Financial Summary - Revenue growth rates are projected as follows: 1.8% for 2023A, 8.3% for 2024A, 8.7% for 2025E, 7.8% for 2026E, and 7.3% for 2027E [3]. - The net profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 72.5 billion RMB for 2023A, 79.7 billion RMB for 2024A, and reaching 152.4 billion RMB by 2027E [3][8]. - The report anticipates a non-GAAP net profit of 144 billion RMB for 2023A, increasing to 221 billion RMB by 2027E [3][18]. - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 10.2 in 2023A to 6.6 by 2027E, indicating improving valuation metrics [3][18].