Guoxin Securities·2024-05-17 09:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (09618.HK) [4][11] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 260 billion yuan in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.0%. JD Retail revenue was 226.8 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year, with self-operated business revenue growing in the mid-single digits. The logistics revenue increased by 16.2% to 47.1 billion yuan, while new business revenue surged by 41.2% due to the consolidation of Dada [1][5] - Non-GAAP net profit reached 8.9 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 3.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Retail operating profit margin slightly decreased, while logistics operating profit margin improved by 3.6 percentage points [1][5] - The company has repurchased 49.2 million ADSs for approximately 1.3 billion USD, representing 3.1% of the circulating shares as of December 31, 2023. There is still a buyback capacity of 2.3 billion USD, accounting for about 4.2% of the market value [1][5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 1,167.1 billion yuan, 1,247.7 billion yuan, and 1,342.6 billion yuan, with adjustments of 1.3%, 1.3%, and 1.4% respectively. Adjusted net profits are expected to be 36.4 billion yuan, 41.1 billion yuan, and 44.8 billion yuan, with adjustments of 1.7%, 3.6%, and 3.7% respectively [2][11] - The company is projected to have a PE ratio of approximately 11x for 2024, with an expected CAGR of 11% for adjusted net profit from 2024 to 2026 [2][11] - The target price has been adjusted to 162-194 HKD, reflecting an increase of 28%-42%, with an expected upside of 22%-47% from the current price [2][11]