Luxi Chemical(SZ:000830)2024-05-17 10:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [3][15]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 25.36 billion in 2023, a decrease of 16.47% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 819 million, down 74.05% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to lower product prices, reduced operating rates, and an accident that halted hydrogen peroxide production [3][13]. - The company aims to produce 9.6 million tons of products in 2024, with ongoing projects expected to enhance capacity further [4][14]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are RMB 1.00, 1.18, and 1.39 respectively, with a target price of RMB 16.00 based on a 16 times PE valuation for 2024 [4][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 25.36 billion, down 16.47% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 819 million, down 74.05% year-on-year. The decline was primarily due to lower product prices and reduced production rates [3][13]. - Sales volumes for key products in 2023 were 458,900 tons for octanol, 297,600 tons for nylon 6 slice, and 662,400 tons for caustic soda, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 5.75%, 5.49%, and 18.18% respectively [3][13]. - The average prices for these products were RMB 9,565, RMB 11,816, and RMB 805 per ton, with changes of 0.30%, -4.71%, and -19.93% year-on-year [3][13]. Production and Capacity - The company has ongoing projects including caprolactam-nylon 6 phase one, silicone, polycarbonate, and hydrogen peroxide projects, with progress at 85%, 75%, 98%, and 60% respectively [4][14]. - The capacity utilization rates for major products in 2023 were 78.95% for caprolactam, 74.67% for nylon 6, and 100.42% for silicone [4][14]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 29.33 billion, RMB 32.61 billion, and RMB 35.58 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 1.92 billion, RMB 2.27 billion, and RMB 2.67 billion [5][10]. - The projected gross margin is expected to improve from 13.4% in 2023 to 16.9% by 2026 [10][15].