Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [5][6] Core Views - ZTO Express achieved a business volume of 7.17 billion parcels in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, while its market share decreased from 21.2% to 19.3% [5][6] - The company continues to avoid loss-making parcels, resulting in a stable single-ticket revenue despite a decline in market share [5][6] - The company’s adjusted net profit for Q1 2024 was 2.224 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.8% [5][6] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in market share in the second half of the year as price competition is expected to ease [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - ZTO Express is a large group company integrating express delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and printing services, providing nationwide delivery and value-added services [2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, ZTO Express's single-ticket cost decreased to 0.94 yuan, down 0.06 yuan year-on-year, while single-ticket profit increased from 0.30 yuan to 0.31 yuan [5][6] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 43.31 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.74% [7] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to reach 10.20 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.60% [7] Market Position - The report notes that ZTO Express's decision to refrain from participating in the price war for low-cost parcels has led to a lower growth rate compared to the industry average, but it has also helped maintain higher profitability [5][6] - The competitive landscape is characterized by aggressive pricing in the low-cost segment, which has pressured the income of franchisees and couriers [6] Future Outlook - The report suggests that if the price war subsides, ZTO Express's profitability and stock price could see significant upward potential [6] - The company is expected to maintain a balanced strategy focusing on service quality, business scale, and profitability [6]
中通快递-W：坚持不做亏本件，单票盈利逆势提升