山鹰国际：2023年报及2024年一季报点评：23年业绩略超预期，盈利能力逐步修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 2.18 CNY, compared to the current price of 1.87 CNY [15]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight revenue beat for 2023, with total revenue of 29.33 billion CNY, down 13.8% year-over-year (YOY), and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million CNY, up 106.9% YOY. The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue increase of 5.0% YOY, with a net profit of 40 million CNY, up 111.4% YOY [1][15]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic corrugated paper market, benefiting from an integrated supply chain that supports its paper, packaging, and recycling businesses [15]. Financial Performance Summary - 2023 Financials: - Total revenue: 29,333 million CNY, with a YOY decline of 13.8% - Net profit: 156 million CNY, with a YOY increase of 106.9% - Gross margin: 9.9%, up 2.6 percentage points YOY [2][15]. - 2024 Projections: - Expected total revenue: 32,094 million CNY, with a projected growth of 9.4% - Expected net profit: 628 million CNY, with a projected growth of 302.1% [2][15]. - Key Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is projected at 13, decreasing to 7 by 2026 - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is estimated at 0.68X for 2024 [2][15]. Business Segment Insights - Paper Segment: - Revenue of 19.24 billion CNY in 2023, with a YOY increase of 11.8%. The average price of AA-grade 120g corrugated paper fell by 18.7% YOY [15]. - Packaging Segment: - Revenue of 7.08 billion CNY in 2023, down 7.8% YOY. The segment's gross margin improved to 13.4%, up 2.7 percentage points YOY [15]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its production capacity, with over 8 million tons of capacity established in key regions. A new facility in Suzhou is under construction, expected to add 1.8 million tons of capacity [15]. - A long-term incentive plan for management is being implemented to improve operational efficiency and employee motivation [15].