Guohai Securities·2024-05-19 05:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618.HK) [1] Core Insights - JD Group's Q1 2024 financial results exceeded Bloomberg consensus expectations, with a focus on user experience and content ecosystem driving steady growth in retail business and strong profit growth due to better-than-expected profit margins in JD Retail and JD Logistics [3][5] Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q1 2024, JD Retail achieved revenue of 226.8 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 15% [4] - The overall revenue for Q1 2024 was 260 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 7% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 15% [5][9] - Gross profit reached 39.8 billion yuan, up 10% year-over-year and down 9% quarter-over-quarter [5][13] - Net profit was 7.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 19% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 285% [5][13] User Engagement and Ecosystem Development - The platform has seen strong growth in active users and user engagement, with active user numbers maintaining double-digit year-over-year growth for two consecutive quarters [6] - The 3P ecosystem has shown significant improvement, with increased transaction user numbers and order volumes [4] Profitability and Margin Analysis - JD Retail's operating profit for Q1 2024 was 9.3 billion yuan, with an operating margin of 4.1%, a slight decline of 0.5 percentage points year-over-year [4][13] - JD Logistics reported revenue of 42.1 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 15%, with an operating margin improvement of 3.6 percentage points to 0.5% [7] Future Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecasts for JD Group for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 1,159.83 billion yuan, 1,230.18 billion yuan, and 1,301.13 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 29 billion yuan, 34.3 billion yuan, and 39.4 billion yuan [14][15] - The target market capitalization for JD Group in 2024 is set at 468.6 billion yuan, with a target price of 147 yuan per share [14][15]