KHPG(SZ:002773) Huafu Securities·2024-05-19 08:00Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience rapid growth driven by the new indication of Conbercept (康柏西普) for retinal vein occlusion (RVO), which was included in the medical insurance directory in 2022 and officially executed in March 2023. The sales of Conbercept have shown significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 41.7% in 2023 and 49% in Q1 2024. The long-term potential for Conbercept is projected to reach a billion-level cash flow product due to its comprehensive indications, lower treatment costs compared to competitors, and low current penetration rates in the market [2][4][45][68]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, originally established as Chengdu Jimin Pharmaceutical Factory in 1996, focuses on biopharmaceuticals, traditional Chinese medicine, chemical drugs, and medical devices, particularly in the ophthalmology sector. Conbercept, launched in 2014, has become the main driver of the company's growth [29][40]. 2. Conbercept's New Indication and Market Growth - Conbercept's new indication for RVO is expected to significantly boost performance, with a projected high growth rate in 2024. The market share of Conbercept is steadily increasing, and the penetration rate remains low, indicating substantial room for growth in the future [2][41][66]. 3. Innovative Pipeline and Differentiation - The company has a rich pipeline of innovative drugs focusing on ophthalmology, neurology, and oncology, with several products expected to yield clinical data soon. Key products include the first-generation and second-generation gene therapy products for eye diseases, which have significant market potential [3][49][78]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 20%, 15%, and 14% from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 21%, 17%, and 14%. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.37 yuan, 1.61 yuan, and 1.84 yuan for the same period. The report suggests that the company's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is lower than the average of comparable companies, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [4][85].