Soochow Securities·2024-05-19 12:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [7][53]. Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for FY2024Q4 reached RMB 221.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of RMB 219.79 billion. However, the Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 24.42 billion, a decline of 11% year-on-year, slightly below the expected RMB 25.25 billion [1][41]. - The company is increasing strategic investments, leading to significant revenue growth in various sectors, including international commerce, local services, Cainiao, and intelligent cloud services. The international digital commerce segment saw a revenue increase of 45% year-on-year, primarily due to investments in cross-border businesses [2][49]. - Alibaba's commitment to a user-first strategy has resulted in steady growth in GMV for Taobao, with online GMV and order volume achieving double-digit year-on-year growth [3][45]. Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue projections for Alibaba are as follows: FY2023A at RMB 868.69 billion, FY2024A at RMB 941.17 billion, FY2025E at RMB 1,019.81 billion, FY2026E at RMB 1,104.62 billion, and FY2027E at RMB 1,194.60 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.83%, 8.34%, 8.36%, 8.32%, and 8.15% respectively [1][56]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is RMB 72.78 billion for FY2023A, RMB 80.01 billion for FY2024A, RMB 116.39 billion for FY2025E, RMB 129.80 billion for FY2026E, and RMB 141.75 billion for FY2027E, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 17.03%, 9.93%, 45.47%, 11.52%, and 9.20% [1][56]. Strategic Investments and Business Growth - The report highlights that Alibaba is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency across its business segments, with significant investments impacting short-term performance but expected to build long-term competitive advantages [7][53]. - The company has committed over USD 16.5 billion in shareholder returns for FY2024, including stock buybacks and dividends, reflecting strong operational confidence [7][32]. Financial Projections - Adjusted EPS forecasts have been revised down to RMB 7.73 for FY2024, RMB 7.88 for FY2025, RMB 8.67 for FY2026, and RMB 9.28 for FY2027, with corresponding PE ratios (Non-GAAP) of 10.26, 10.06, 9.14, and 8.54 respectively [7][53].