Guotai Junan Securities·2024-05-20 00:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group (9618.HK) with a target price of 163 HKD based on the SOTP valuation method [3][20]. Core Insights - JD Group's net profit exceeded expectations despite high subsidies and investments, indicating effective transformation in its marketplace and ongoing development of its 3P ecosystem [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its content ecosystem and supporting live streaming, which is expected to create new growth drivers [3]. - Revenue and profit for FY24Q1 were above expectations, with total revenue increasing by 7% year-on-year to 260 billion RMB, surpassing the anticipated 258.3 billion RMB [3][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - JD Group's revenue for FY24Q1 reached 260 billion RMB, a 7% year-on-year increase, driven by a 7% increase in product revenue and a 9% increase in service revenue [3][11]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24Q1 was 8.9 billion RMB, a 17% increase year-on-year, exceeding the expected 7.4 billion RMB [3][11]. 2. Business Segment Performance - JD Retail's revenue grew by 7% year-on-year to 226.8 billion RMB, supported by a significant increase in active user numbers and improved purchase frequency [3]. - JD Logistics saw a 15% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by a 57% growth in Dada's revenue [3]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report slightly adjusts the revenue forecasts for FY2024E/FY2025E/FY2026E to 1,166.1 billion RMB, 1,235.9 billion RMB, and 1,298.3 billion RMB respectively, with expected growth rates of 8%, 6%, and 5% [3][20]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2024E/FY2025E/FY2026E are set at 37.8 billion RMB, 40.3 billion RMB, and 44.9 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 7%, 7%, and 11% respectively [3][20].