Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][3]. Core Views - In Q1 2024, the company adjusted its strategy to focus more on profitability and service quality, resulting in a slight decline in market share but a profit growth that slightly exceeded expectations [3][5]. - The company completed a business volume of 7.27 billion pieces in Q1, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.9%, with a market share of 19.3%, down by 1.9 percentage points [5]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 was 22.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, despite a reported net profit of 14.5 billion yuan, which was a 13% decline due to a 4.8 billion yuan impairment from Alibaba's acquisition of Cainiao shares [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024E: 49.252 billion yuan - 2025E: 53.942 billion yuan - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 11% in 2024 and 15% in 2025 [3]. - The net profit forecast is: - 2024E: 12.228 billion yuan - 2025E: 13.384 billion yuan - Net profit growth rates are projected at 10.5% for 2024 and 26.5% for 2025 [3]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be: - 2024E: 14.79 yuan - 2025E: 16.18 yuan [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 20.9 in 2022 to 10.6 in 2026, indicating an attractive valuation [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its profitability and service quality while strategically relinquishing some loss-making business segments [5]. - The average daily volume of the company's parcel business reached 5 million pieces, with expectations for rapid growth in this segment due to improved service quality [5]. - The company is also increasing its dividend payout and share buyback amounts, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns [5].
中通快递-W：24Q1业绩点评：份额下降，利润增长，业绩略超预期